March has traditionally been the worst performing month for gold. The second quarter isn’t usually much better. The March-July period coincides with weak seasonal demand for gold. Demand picks up in the second half of year in the lead-up to India’s Hindu festival of lights, Diwali.
Seasonal monthly chart of Gold:
Seasonal Gold chart courtesy of Bloomberg based on data from the last 12 years.
Over a longer time perspective gold used to have a 6 month cycle, early February and early August every year. On the above chart based on the last decade it looks like this cycle is moved forward 1 month to march and September respectively.
Gold’s yearly seasonal pattern based on 30 year, 15 year and 5 year history:
Very similar yearly seasonal patter regardless of time perspective.
Silver rally from the beginning of the year into February making a top and then decline into June, from then on a new rally begins.
Palladium rally into February making a top and decline into June – October time frame, from then on a new rally begins.