Seasonal Trend of Precious Metals – Elliott Wave Technician

Gold

March has traditionally been the worst performing month for gold. The second quarter isn’t usually much better. The March-July period coincides with weak seasonal demand for gold. Demand picks up in the second half of year in the lead-up to India’s Hindu festival of lights, Diwali.

Seasonal monthly chart of Gold:

Seasonal Gold chart courtesy of Bloomberg based on data from the last 12 years.

Over a longer time perspective gold used to have a 6 month cycle, early February and early August every year. On the above chart based on the last decade it looks like this cycle is moved forward 1 month to march and September respectively.

Gold’s yearly seasonal pattern based on 30 year, 15 year and 5 year history:

Very similar yearly seasonal patter regardless of time perspective.

Silver rally from the beginning of the year into February making a top and then decline into June, from then on a new rally begins.

Palladium rally into February making a top and decline into June – October time frame, from then on a new rally begins.

The Rothschild Brothers of London writing to associates in New York, 1863, laying the groundwork for the eventual passage of their catastrophic Federal Reserve Act on December 23, 1913:

“The few who understand the system will either be so interested in its profits or be so dependent upon its favors that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests.”